Dr. Lukas Gudmundsson

Additional information

Journal Articles * Conference Proceedings * Book Chapters * PhD Thesis * Technical Reports * R Packages * Data Sets

Journal Articles:

Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change

AUTHORS Gudmundsson, L.; ; Do H. X; Gosling, S. G.; Grillakis, M. G.; Koutroulis, A.G.; Leonard, M.; Lui, J.; Müller Schmied, H.; Papadimitriou, L.; Pokhrel, Y.; Schewe, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Thiery, W.; Westra, S.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, F.

Science (2021): 371(6534), 1159-1162, doi:10.1126/science.aba3996. ** FREE ACCESS **

Global Terrestrial Water Storage and Drought Severity under Climate Change

Pokhrel, Y.; Felfelani, F.; Satoh, Y.; Boulange, J.; Burek, P.; Gädeke, A.; Gerten, D.; Gosling,S. N.; Grillakis, M.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hanasaki, N.; Kim, H.; Koutroulis, A.; Liu, J.; Papadimitriou, L.; Schewe, J.; Müller Schmied, H.; Stacke, T.; Telteu, C. E.; Thiery, W.; Veldkamp, T.; Zhao, F .; Wada, Y.

Nature Climate Change (2021): 11, 226–233, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w.

Soil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production in global observations

Liu, L.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Qin, L.; Li, S.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Nature Communications (2020): 11, 4892, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18631-1.

Methodology for generating climate forcing for ecosystem experiments

AVanderkelen, I.; Zschleischler, J.; Gudmundsson, L.; Davin, E.; Keuler, K.;Rineau, F.; Beenaerts, N.; Vangronsveld, J. and Thiery, W.

International Journal of Biometeorology (2020): 64(10), 1709-1727, doi:10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8.

Human-induced observed dry season intensification driven by increased evapotranspiration

Padron, R. S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Nature Geoscience (2020): 13, 477-481, doi:DOI10.1038/s41561-020-0594-1.

Crossbreeding CMIP6 Earth System Models with an Emulator for Regionally-optimized Land Temperature Projections

Beusch, L.; Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2020): 47, e2019GL086812, doi:10.1029/2019GL086812.

Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model-observation investigation

Do, H. X.; Zhao, F.; Westra, S.; Leonard, M.; Gudmundsson, L.; Chang, J.; Boulange, J. E. S.; Chang, J.; Ciais, P.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S. N.; Müller Schmied, H.; Stacke, T.; Telteu, C. E.; Wada, Y.

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. (2020): 24, 1543-1564, doi:10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020.

Terrestrial water loss at night: global relevance from observations and climate models

Padrón, R. S.; Gudmundsson, L., Michel, D.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. (2020): 24, 793 – 807, doi:10.5194/hess-24-793-2020.

Emulating Earth System Model temperatures: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid point level realizations on land

Beusch, L.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Earth Syst. Dynam. (2020): 11, 139–159, doi:10.5194/esd-11-139-2020.

Global-scale prediction of flood timing by reanalysis climate datasets

Do, H. X; Westra, S.; Leonard, M.; Gudmundsson, L.

Water Resources Research (2020): 55, doi:10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019.

Towards more predictive and interdisciplinary climate change ecosystem experiments

Rineau, F. et al. (incl. Gudmundsson, L.)

Nature Climate Change (2019): 9, 809–816, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0609-3.

A global observations-driven runoff reconstruction for 1901 – 2014

Ghiggi, G.; Humphrey, V.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Gudmundsson, L.

Earth Syst. Sci. Data (2019): 11, 1655–1674, doi:10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019.

Revisiting assessments of ecosystem drought recovery

Liu, L.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hauser, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Environ. Res. Lett. (2019): 14, 114028, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4c61.

Intercomparison of daily precipitation persistence in multiple global observations and climate models

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B. P.; Venugopal V. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Environ. Res. Lett. (2019): 14, 105009, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab4169.

GRACE-REC: a reconstruction of water storage changes over the last century

Humphrey, V.; Gudmundsson, L.

Earth Syst. Sci. Data (2019): 11, 1153-1170, doi:10.5194/essd-11-1153-2019.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Schewe, J. et al. (incl. Gudmundsson, L.)

Nature Communications (2019): 10, 1005 , doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6.

Observed Trends in Global Indicators of Mean and Extreme Streamflow

Gudmundsson, L.; Leonard, M.; Do, H. X.; Westra, S.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2019): 46, 756-766 , doi:10.1029/2018gl079725.

Observational Constraints Reduce Likelihood of Extreme Changes in Multidecadal Land Water Availability

Padrón, R. S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2019): 46, 736-744, doi:10.1029/2018gl080521.

Soil Moisture Effects on Afternoon Precipitation Occurrence in Current Climate Models

Moon, H.; Guillod, B. P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2019): 46, 1861-1869 , doi:10.1029/2018gl080879.

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate to observed changes in terrestrial water storage

Humphrey, V.; Zscheischler, J.; Ciais, P. Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S.I.

Nature (2018): 560, 628-631, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0424-4.

Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a - Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets

Wartenburger, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Hirschi, M.; Chang, J.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Folberth, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Gudmundsson, L.; Henrot, A.; Hickler, T.; Ito, A.; Khabarov, N.; Kim, H.; Leng, G.; Liu, J.; Liu, X.; Masaki, Y.; Morfopoulos, C.; Müller, C.; Schmied, H. M.; Nishina, K.; Orth, R.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Pugh, T.; Satoh, Y.; Schaphoff, S.; Schmid, E.; Sheffield, J.; Stacke, T.; Steinkamp, J.; Tang, Q.; Thiery, W.; Wada, Y.; Wang, X.; Weedon, G. P.; Yang, H. & Zhou, T.

Environmental Research Letters (2018): 13,075001 , doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac4bb.

Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts

Zaherpour, J.; Gosling, S. N.; Mount, N.; Schmied, H. M.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Dankers, R.; Eisner, S.; Gerten, D.; Gudmundsson, L.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Kim, H.; Leng, G.; Liu, J.; Masaki, Y.; Oki, T.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Satoh, Y.; Schewe, J. & Wada, Y.

Environmental Research Letters (2018): 13, 065015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac547.

Historical deforestation locally increased the intensity of hot days in northern mid-latitudes

Lejeune, Q.; Davin, E; Gudmundsson, L.; Winckler, J.; Seneviratne, S.I.

Nature Climate Change (2018): 8, 386-390, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0131-z. News Coverage: CarbonBrief, Mongabay, NatCC News & Views

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 1: The production of a daily streamflow archive and metadata

Do, H.X.; Gudmundsson, L.; Leonard, M.;Westra, S.

Earth System Science Data (2018): 10, 765-785, doi:10.5194/essd-10-765-2018. (DATA)

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 2: Quality control, time-series indices and homogeneity assessment

Gudmundsson, L.; Do, H.X.; Leonard, M.;Westra, S.

Earth System Science Data (2018): 10, 787-804, doi:10.5194/essd-10-787-2018. (DATA)

Drought persistence errors in global climate models

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2018): 123, doi:10.1002/2017JD027577.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Earth System Dynamics (2018): 9, 227-240, doi:10.5194/esd-9-227-2018.

Large-Scale Controls of the Surface Water Balance Over Land-Insights From a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Padrón, R. S; Gudmundsson, L.; Greve, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Water Resources Research (2017): 53, 9659 - 9678, doi:10.1002/2017WR021215.

Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources

Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I. & Zhang, X

Nature Climate Change (2017): 7, 813 - 816, doi:10.1038/nclimate3416.

Contribution to ETH Zukunftsblog, News Coverage: IAC News, Aargauer Zeitung, FM1 today, Umwelt Perspekiven, kleinezeitung.at, Der Standard, Luzerner Zeitung, ORF

Methods and model dependency of extreme event attribution: The 2015 European drought

Hauser, M.; Gudmundsson, L.; Orth, R.; Jézéquel, A.; Haustein, K.; Vautard, R.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Wilcox, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

Earth's Future (2017): 5, 1034 - 1043, doi: 10.1002/2017EF000612.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

Thiery, W.; Gudmundsson, L.; Bedka, K.; Semazzi, F. H. M.; Lhermitte, S.; Willems, P.; van Lipzig, N. P. M. & Seneviratne, S. I.

Environmental Research Letters (2017): 12, 074012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7521.(news coverage: 1, 2)

A drought event composite analysis using satellite remote-sensing based soil moisture

Nicolai-Shaw, N.; Zscheischler, J.; Hirschi, M.; Gudmundsson, L. , Seneviratne, S. I.

Remote Sensing of Environment (2017): 203, 216 - 225, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2017.06.014.

Correspondence: Flawed assumptions compromise water yield assessment

Gudmundsson, L.; Greve, P. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Nature Communications (2017): 8, 14795, doi:10.1038/ncomms14795.

A global reconstruction of climate-driven subdecadal water storage variability

Humphrey, V.; Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2017): 44, 2300–2309, doi:10.1002/2017GL072564.

Long-term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: persistence versus large-scale drivers

Nicolai-Shaw, N.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hirschi, M. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2016): 43, 8554-8562, doi:10.1002/2016GL069847.

Observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe (E-RUN version 1.1)

Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Earth System Sciences Data (2016): 8, 279-295, doi:10.5194/essd-8-279-2016. (DATA)

The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors - a probabilistic analysis in the Budyko-space

Gudmundsson, L.; Greve, P. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2016): 43, 2016GL069763, doi:10.1002/2016GL069763.

A two-parameter Budyko function to represent conditions under which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation

Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Orlowsky, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (2016): 20, 2195--2205, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2195-2016.

Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Environmental Research Letters (2016): 11, 044005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005.

Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Van Lanen, H.; Laaha, G.; Kingston, D. G.; Gauster, T.; Ionita, M.; Vidal, J.-P.; Vlnas, R.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Delus, C.; Fendekova, M.; Mediero, L.; Prudhomme, C.; Rets, E.; Romanowicz, R. J.; Gailliez, S.; Wong, W. K.; Adler, M.-J.; Blauhut, V.; Caillouet, L.; Chelcea, S.; Frolova, N.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hanel, M.; Haslinger, K.; Kireeva, M.; Osuch, M.; Sauquet, E.; Stagge, J. H. & Van Loon, A. F.

Hydrological Processes (2016): 30, 3097–3104, doi:10.1002/hyp.10838. Top Cited Invited Commentary Award 2017

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes

Humphrey, V.; Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.

Surveys in Geophysics (2016): 2, 357-395, doi:10.1007/s10712-016-9367-1.

Response to comment on "Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI)"

Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Gudmundsson, L.; Van Loon, A. F. & Stahl, K.

International Journal of Climatology (2016): 36, 2132-2138, doi:10.1002/joc.4564.

Towards observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe

Gudmundsson, L. & Seneviratne, S. I.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (2015): 19, 2859-2879, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2859-2015. highlighted in HESS

Introducing a probabilistic Budyko framework

Greve, P.; Gudmundsson, L.; Orlowsky, B. & Seneviratne, S. I.

Geophysical Research Letters (2015): 42, 2261-2269, doi:10.1002/2015GL063449.

Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI)

Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Gudmundsson, L. ; Van Loon, A. F. & Stahl, K.

International Journal of Climatology (2015): 35, 4027-4040, doi:10.1002/joc.4267. (SOFTWARE)

Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts

Blauhut, V.; Gudmundsson, L. & Stahl, K.

Environmental Research Letters (2015): 10, 014008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008. (news coverage)

Predicting above normal wildfire activity in southern Europe as a function of meteorological drought

Gudmundsson, L. ; Rego, F. C.; Rocha, M. & Seneviratne, S. I.

Environmental Research Letters (2014): 9, 084008, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084008. (news coverage)

Today's virtual water consumption and trade under future water scarcity

Orlowsky, B.; Hoekstra, A. Y.; Gudmundsson, L. & Seneviratne, S. I.

Environmental Research Letters (2014): 9, 074007, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074007.

Evaluation of nine large-scale hydrological models with respect to the seasonal runoff climatology in Europe

Gudmundsson, L.; Wagener, T.; Tallaksen, L. M. & Engeland, K.

Water Resources Research (2012): 48, W11504, doi: 10.1029/2011WR010911.

Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations - a comparison of methods

Gudmundsson, L.; Bremnes, J. B.; Haugen, J. E. & Engen Skaugen, T.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (2012): 9, 6185-6201, doi: 10.5194/hessd-9-6185-2012. (discussion version, SOFTWARE)

Comparing Large-scale Hydrological Model Simulations to Observed Runoff Percentiles in Europe

Gudmundsson, L.; Tallaksen, L. M.; K. Stahl & Others.

Journal of Hydrometeorology (2012): 13, 604-620, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-11-083.1.

Benchmarking high-resolution re-analysis simulations with streamflow data from small basins across Europe

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen L.M. & Gudmundsson L.

Journal of Hydrometeorology (2011): 12, 900-12, doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1356.1.

Low-frequency Variability of European Runoff

Gudmundsson, L.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K. & Fleig, A. K.

Hydrology and Earthsystem Siences (2011): 15, 2853-2869, doi: 10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011.

Spatial cross-correlation patterns of European low, mean and high flows

Gudmundsson, L.; Tallaksen, L. M. & Stahl, K.

Hydrological Processes (2011): 25, 1034 – 1045, doi: 10.1002/hyp.7807.

Conference Proceedings (ISI indexed)

European drought trends

Gudmundsson, L. & Seneviratne, S. I.

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (2015): 369, 75-79, doi:10.5194/piahs-369-75-2015. (corrigendum)

Book Chapters

A comprehensive drought climatology for Europe (1950 - 2013)

Gudmundsson, L. & Seneviratne, S.

Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing (2015): CRC Press, 2015, 31-37, doi:10.1201/b18077-7.

Characteristics and drivers of drought in Europe - a summary of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project

Tallaksen, L.; Stagge, J.; Stahl, K.; Gudmundsson, L.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S.; Loon, A. V. & Lanen, H. V.

Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, CRC Press, 2015, 15-21, doi:10.1201/b18077-5.

PhD Thesis:

Large-Scale Hydrology in Europe - Observed Patterns and Model Performance.

Gudmundsson, L.

Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo (2011). ( pdf )

Technical Reports:

Evaluation of the potential and limitations of Pan-European analyses of drought as a natural hazard on local and national scales

Van Loon, A.; Van Lanen, H.; Kampragou, E.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Haro Monteagudo, D.; Andreu, J.; Dias, S.; Rego, F.; Gudmundsson, L. & Wolters, W.

DROUGHT-R&SPI Technical Report (2015): 34.

Recommendations for indicators for monitoring and early-warning considering different sensitivities: pan-European scale

Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Bachmair, S.; Blauhut, V.; Rego, F. C.; Stefano, L. D.; Dias, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Gunst, L.; Kohn, I.; Lanen, H. A. V.; Reguera, J. U. & Tallaksen, L. M.

DROUGHT-R&SPI Technical Report (2015): 28.

Guidelines for Monitoring and Early Warning of Drought in Europe.

Gudmundsson, L. ; v. Loon, A. F.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Stagge, J. H.; Stahl, K. & van Lanen, H. A.

DROUGHT-R&SPI Technical Report (2014): 21.

Future drought impact and vulnerability - case study scale.

Assimacopoulos, D.; Kampragou, E.; Andreu, J.; Bifulco, C.; de Carli, A.; Stefano, L. D.; Dias, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Haro-Monteagudo, D.; Musolino, D.; Paredes-Arquiola, J.; Rego, F.; Seidl, I.; Solera, A.; Urquijo, J.; van Lanen, H. & Wolters, W.

DROUGHT-R&SP Technical Report (2014): 20.

Likelihood of future drought hazards: selected European case studies.

van Lanen, H. A.; Alderlieste, M. A.; van der Heijden, A.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Dias, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Monteagudo, D. H.; Andreu, J.; Bifulco, C.; Gero, F.; Paredes, J. & Solera, A.

DROUGHT-R&SP Technical Report (2013): 11.

Evaluation 1st Phase Case Study Dialogue Fora.

Vanda Acácio, J. A.; de Carli, A.; Angelis-Dimakis, A.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Bifulco, C.; Dias, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Massarutto, A.; Monteagudo, D. H.; Musolino, D.; Paredes, J.; Rego, F.; Seidl, I.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Senn, L. & Solera, A.

DROUGHT-R&SP Technical Report (2013): 7.

Quantitative analysis of historic droughts in selected European case study areas.

van Lanen, H. A.; amd Vanda Acacio Joaquín Andreu, M. A. A.; Garnier, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Monteagudo, D. H.; Lekkas, D.; Paredes, J.; Solera, A.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Rego, F.; Seneviratne, S.; Stahl, K. & Tallaksen, L. M.

DROUGHT-R&SP Technical Report (2012): 8.

Assessing the suitability of weather generators based on Generalised Linear Models for downscaling climate projections.

Gudmundsson, L.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute (2012): 5.

Projected changes in future runoff variability - a multi model analysis using the A2 emission scenario.

Gudmundsson, L.; Tallaksen, L. M. & Stahl, K.

WATCH Technical Report (2011): 49.

R Packages

qmap: Quantile-mapping for post-processing climate model output

SCI: Standardized Climate Indices such as SPI, SRI or SPEI

Data Sets

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive - Part 1: Station catalog and Catchment boundary.

Do, H.X.; Gudmundsson, L.; Leonard, M.;Westra, S.

doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.887477.

The Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata Archive (GSIM) - Part 2: Time Series Indices and Homogeneity Assessment.

Gudmundsson, L.; Do, H.X.; Leonard, M.;Westra, S.

doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.887470.

E-RUN version 1.1: Observational gridded runoff estimates for Europe, link to data in NetCDF format (69 MB).

Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.

doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.861371.

GRACE TWS Reconstruction (GRACE_REC_v01).

Humphrey, V.; Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.

doi:10.5905/ethz-1007-85.